The Blue Jays will look to bounce-back from a 6-2 loss in game two of a four-game set in Detroit. It was the 19th time this season that the Jays had been held to two runs or less, and Alek Manoah’s encouraging recent form went out the window as he allowed four earned runs across just four and two-third innings.

Toronto is now 5-5 over the last 10, and 11-15 on the road. Due to an underachieving 23-27 record, it is the leagues third least profitable side from a betting perspective thus far. The Blue Jays are favoured once again in Saturday’s matchup, as Jose Berrios (2.98 ERA, 60 and 2/3 IP) will take on Reese Olson (2.16 ERA, 50 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Saturday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Orioles via bet365:

After an incredible start to the season which included AL Pitcher of the Month honours in May, Jose Berrios has been in less dominant form of late. Over his last three starts Berrios has pitched to an ERA of 7.02 with a WHIP of 1.38. While a three start stretch in baseball is not entirely indicative of anything, Berrios has been viewed as a natural regression candidate all season.

Berrios has greatly overachieved his xERA of 4.87 and xFIP of 4.14. He has been hard-hit 47.6% of the time, and has seen his whiff-rate trend down to 20.3%.

His Stuff+ rating currently sits at 93 compared to last seasons mark of 100, which correlates with his lesser ability to generate swing-and-miss. Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% versus Berrios fastballs this season, which is the 9th lowest mark among qualified starters.

While fans have been clamouring for some significant change, it seemed somewhat funny that the first move the Blue Jays have settled on this 2024 season was the return of the home run jacket. It didn’t look as goofy when they won 9-2 and 9-1 in the first two games since the jackets return though, but Friday’s contest looked more on par with what we are used to seeing.

The Blue Jays hit to a strong expected batting average of .283 and recorded ten hits in the game. None of it mattered though, because the inability to hit with RISP once again prevented Toronto from doing much damage where it counts.

The Jays have hit a 13th-ranked wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers this season, with an OPS of .691. They own a seventh-best 0.44 BB/K in splits versus right-handed pitching.

With Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette both trending into better form, the Blue Jays offensive splits have improved recently. They own a wRC+ of 108, and an OPS of .725 over the last two weeks of play.

A new flaw for the Jays this season compared to last has been the significant struggles of the bullpen. Over the last 30 days their relievers own a fourth worst ERA of 4.82, with a 4.28 xFIP. The high leverage arms in the Jays pen should all be available for Saturday’s matchup based upon recent usage.

Reese Olson has been a bright spot for the Tigers this season, as the 24-year-old righty owns a 2.06 ERA entering this matchup. His consensus preseason ERA projection was just north of 4.00, and he pitched to an ERA of 3.99 in 2023.

He has significantly overachieved his 3.48 xERA and 3.80 xFIP so far. Allowing a home-run to fly-ball ratio of only 2.3% compared to last seasons 13.5% HR/FB has been one reason for his significant improvements.

Olson owns a Stuff+ rating of just 92, and a Location+ mark of 97. Both of those marks are actually considerably worse than the marks Olson held in 2023. His K/BB ratio has actually worsened to 2.69 compared to last years mark.

The Tigers have hit to a wRC+ of 95 versus right-handed pitching this season. They have struck out 24.7% of the time, and own the third-lowest hard-hit rate at only 27.6%.

The Blue Jays should be quietly well-situated to follow up on their improved offensive play in this matchup. Olson is greatly overachieving preseason expectations, and the Jays will be in their much-preferred splits against a righty. We see pitchers go on small runs of dominance all the time in baseball, and it’s tough to see significant causation as to why Olson’s surprising dominance will continue all season.

Berrios recent struggles seem to be more than bad luck, and it looks like he is being overvalued in this matchup given his highly concerning underlying profile. Many of the Jays top bullpen arms have also displayed shaky form of late, as Yimi Garcia is the only important reliever that has been overly sharp lately.

First pitch is calling for 78 degree temperates with 9-10 MPH winds blowing out to left center-field.

In what is expected to be hitter-friendly conditions, a betting total of 8 looks too low in this matchup. There is value betting the game to go over 8 runs at anything better than -120.