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MLB Betting Preview (May 31): Pirates vs. Blue Jays predictions
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer (4) celebrates with outfielder Kevin Kiermaier (39) after scoring against the Chicago White Sox during the fourth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Photo credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
May 31, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: May 31, 2024, 10:31 EDT
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The Toronto Blue Jays are back in action Friday for the start of a three-game interleague series with the Pittsburgh Pirates at Rogers Centre.
Toronto completed a three-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox earlier this week. They can match their longest winning streak of the season (four games) with a victory on Friday night.
The Pirates split a doubleheader with the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday after Tuesday’s clash between the teams was postponed due to weather. They took two of three games from the Atlanta Braves prior to that mini-series.
Both teams had the day off Thursday so they’ll be fresh for the series opener.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Pirates and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Pirates vs. Blue Jays odds

Pirates Moneyline Odds
+140
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
-165
Runline Odds
Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Pirates +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under
Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 runs (-115)
Time/Date
May 31, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Sportsnet 1, Sportsnet+

Betting Pittsburgh Pirates (26-30 SU, 30-26 ATS, 28-26-2 o/u)

The Pirates used both of their promising young starting pitchers, Jared Jones and Paul Skenes, on Wednesday against the Tigers, so they likely won’t pitch in this series with the Blue Jays. Pittsburgh dropped the opener of the doubleheader 8-0 behind Jones but rebounded with a convincing 10-2 victory with Skenes leading the way.
There’s no doubt starting pitching is the strength of this Pirates club, but it does struggle offensively. The Pirates are averaging four runs per game (22nd in the majors) and rank towards the back of the pack in team batting average (.229 – 25th), on-base percentage (.302 – 25th), and OPS (.661 – 26th).
Their bullpen is also shaky, with their relievers posting a 4.68 ERA and 1.40 WHIP to this point in the season.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (26-29 SU, 28-27 ATS, 23-32 o/u)

The Blue Jays desperately needed that sweep over the White Sox to get back on track but now the challenge will be harnessing that momentum into a series win against the Pirates. Their schedule gets considerably more difficult in June, as they’ll play against the Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians (two series next month), Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox (also two series) and New York Yankees. All of those teams are well above .500, with the exception of Boston, which enters play Friday just one game below .500 but always seems to play the Blue Jays well.
Right-hander Alek Manoah felt a pinch in his throwing elbow during his last start against the White Sox, forcing him to exit the game early. He underwent an MRI on Thursday and the results should be revealed at some point Friday. He was just beginning to get back on track after a disastrous 2023 campaign, and if the injury is serious, it could leave a hole at the back of Toronto’s rotation. Yariel Rodriguez and Bowden Francis, two candidates to take Manoah’s spot if he requires a stint on the injured list, are both working their way back from injuries.

Probable starting pitchers

Pittsburgh: LHP Bailey Falter (3-2, 3.55 ERA, 5.09 K/9, 0.98 WHIP)
Falter is having a breakout season for the Pirates after not having much success over his first three big league seasons. He mostly pitches to contact and uses his fastball, which averages just 91.5 mph, roughly 50% of the time, according to Baseball Savant. However, he ranks in the 99th percentile in extension which makes his fastball deceptively faster. Only Justin Turner and Daulton Varsho have previous experience against the southpaw and they’re hitless in a combined five at-bats with a walk and two strikeouts. He’ll have the element of surprise on Toronto for the most part in this matchup.
Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (5-4, 2.94 ERA, 7.08 K/9, 1.10 WHIP)
Berrios has been tremendous this season, aside from one bad start (8 ER over 3 2/3 innings) against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this month. He’s coming off a strong performance against the Tigers, when he threw seven innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts. If you want to nitpick one thing about Berrios, it’s that he’s susceptible to the long ball. The righty has coughed up 10 home runs over his 11 starts and someone has taken him deep in six straight outings.

Weather

There’s a very good chance the retractable dome at Rogers Centre will be open on Friday night. Evening temperatures will be around 21 C with clear skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 8 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The over is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
  • Pittsburgh is 17-12 on the runline in 29 road games this season.
  • The Blue Jays have played under the total in 15 of their 24 home games this season.
  • The Blue Jays set a new franchise record on Wednesday by going 21 straight games without scoring a run in the first inning.

MLB player prop trends

  • Falter has recorded 18 or more outs in each of his last three starts. He’s -110 to record over 17.5 outs.
  • Blue Jays third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa is taking an eight-game hitting streak into action Friday. He’s -190 to extend that streak.
  • Pirates first baseman Connor Joe is also swinging a hot bat, collecting hits in six straight games, including three multi-hit performances. He’s -230 to get a hit and +135 to record over 1.5 total bases.
  • Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has driven in at least one run in four straight games. He’s +155 to record over 0.5 RBIs.
  • Blue Jays designated hitter Justin Turner is cold at the plate, recording just one hit over his last five games. He’s +175 to go hitless on the day.

Pirates vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • NRFI (no run first inning): -115. As previously stated, the Blue Jays have gone 21 straight games without scoring in the first inning and the Pirates also have a tendency to flop in the opening frame, going scoreless in 43 of their 56 games (77% hit rate). The NRFI is also 4-0 in Berrios’ home starts this season.
  • Under 8.5 runs: -115. The Blue Jays have had a tendency to play under the total this season, and with two solid starting pitchers on the mound, this should be another low-scoring affair with two unfamiliar interleague opponents squaring off.
  • Keep an eye on the Pirates’ lineup card to see if former Blue Jay Rowdy Tellez gets the nod at first base or DH. He’s 2-for-5 in his career with a pair of homers against Berrios. You won’t find any player props listed at bet365 for him as of Friday morning, but if he does play, have a look and see if there’s value on the overs for his home runs, hits, and/or total bases.

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