After a dominant 13-4 win in Game 3, the Toronto Blue Jays have the opportunity to knot their best-of-seven American League Championship series with the Seattle Mariners at two games apiece on Thursday and assure themselves at least one more home game this postseason.

Toronto will hope that future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer can turn back the clock in his first start of the postseason, while Seattle will start Luis Castillo.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Thursday’s ALCS Game 4 matchup between the Blue Jays and Mariners, courtesy of bet365.

It was Andres Gimenez, batting out of the nine-hole, that ultimately came through with a huge hit to spark the Blue Jays offence in Game 2. Toronto finished the game with five home runs and 18 hits and struck out seven times across 46 at-bats. John Schneider called for more “uppercuts” ahead of Game 3, and his team delivered after struggling to create extra-base hits in the first two games of the series.

While the Jays obviously showed out offensively in Game 3, as outlined yesterday, their offensive process in Games 1 and 2 was much more respectable than the actual output suggested.

The Blue Jays’ greatest offensive regression at the end of the season came versus left-handed starters while playing without Bo Bichette, which is one reason this series set up well for the offence on paper, as the Mariners have no left-handed starters.

Since August 1st, the Blue Jays have been the best team in the league versus right-handed pitching and have consistently exhibited elite plate discipline to generate quality at-bats up and down the lineup.  The Blue Jays hit four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders quite effectively this season, which could prove favourable in a matchup versus Castillo.

Ahead of Wednesday’s matchup, we outlined how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had been quite unlucky to go 0-for-7 in the series, as he had recorded five outs with exit velocities of 95 mph or higher. Vladdy obviously had better luck on his well-hit balls in Game 4, going 4-for-4 with a home run and nearly completing the second postseason cycle in history.

After being left off the ALDS roster thanks to a horrid finish to the season, Scherzer will look to prove he still has something to give in this critical start. Scherzer’s wealth of postseason experience will obviously be beneficial in this spot, but whether or not he still has the stuff to succeed at the MLB level remains to be seen.

At age 41, the quality of Scherzer’s stuff has dropped considerably compared to what it was earlier on in his career. He held a Stuff+ rating of 96 this season and an average fastball velocity of 93.7 mph. He did still hold a strong Pitching+ rating of 105, based on strong command.

Scherzer finished the campaign with an ERA of 5.19, which was a slight underperformance of his 4.79 xERA and 4.55 xFIP. He’s not pitched since September 24th (4 ER across five innings), and the extra time off could prove beneficial to get his arm in a good place for this outing.

The Blue Jays bullpen has not been effective this postseason, which is an obvious concern in this matchup, where oddsmakers have set Scherzer’s over/under betting total at just 11.5 outs.

John Schneider will likely look to use Chris Bassitt following Scherzer in this matchup to attempt to chew up two or three innings. Bassitt finished the season with a 3.81 ERA and 3.84 xFIP, and held a 2.77 ERA in his final five appearances before ending up on the IL with back inflammation, which caused him to be left off the ALDS roster.

Like the Blue Jays, the Mariners will have a formerly elite starter on the mound in this matchup in Castillo, who also appears to have trended past his prime. Castillo pitched to an xERA of 4.10 this season and an xFIP of 4.09. His strikeout-minus-walk rate of 15.6% was the second- worst mark of his career, and his Stuff+ rating of 96 was the worst mark of his career by a wide margin.

Castillo pitched quite well last round versus the Detroit Tigers, allowing just one hit and zero earned runs in six innings of work. While Castillo deserves credit for those performances, as we outlined yesterday, the Tigers were one of the worst teams in the league versus right-handed pitching following the All-Star break.

Castillo was drastically more effective pitching inside the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Stadium this season, pitching to an ERA of 2.60 in 100 1/3 innings of work.

The Mariners bullpen has benefitted from consecutive blowouts, as well as an off-day on Tuesday, and all of the team’s top high-leverage arms in Eduard Buzardo, Gabe Speier, Andres Munoz, and Matt Brash should be ready to work in this matchup. The Blue Jays will certainly be in a tough spot if they are trailing entering the late innings as a result; Speier’s 2.51 ERA was the highest out of the four this season.

The Mariners offence has come through with timely hits during this postseason but has still been relatively unconvincing overall. They have hit to a wRC+ of 98 and struck out 28.6% of the time while making soft contact 20.2% of the time.

This feels like a fairly volatile matchup after the Blue Jays’ offensive outburst in Game 3. It feels like the Blue Jays offence may have regained its confidence with that win, and Castillo sets up as a pretty good matchup on paper relative to the pitching matchups faced in the majority of playoff games.

Scherzer and Bassitt both may benefit from the added time off, which could help them find a way to grind through the Mariners lineup once, and potentially a little more.

It seems crazy to say it, but the Blue Jays’ best chance of finding success in this matchup is by winning the Scherzer/Bassitt innings, as Castillo may arguably be the worst Mariners pitcher to work in this matchup. Therefore my lean in terms of a side would be betting the Blue Jays to win the first five innings at +110.

There does appear to be value in backing Guerrero Jr. to walk at a long price of +180, an angle that worked out for us in Game 3 and Game 4 of the ALDS. While Vladdy has not been completely dominant in this series in going 4-for-11, he holds a 73% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 98.1 mph.

Considering the quality of contact Guerrero has made in the series, as well as his 1.479 OPS this postseason, I’m happy to bet into the idea that the Mariners will pitch him quite cautiously in this matchup, and believe a price of +180 provides plenty of value.