If you are wondering why the Blue Jays pulled Bieber at just 54 pitches, this is why: - 12 BBE - 9 Hard Hits (3 of which were barrels) Bieber was lucky to only have allowed 2 ER. The bullpen decisions are not to blame
MLB betting preview (Oct. 8): Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 4 ALDS predictions
Photo credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Oct 8, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 8, 2025, 11:15 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to respond after blowing a five-run lead Tuesday evening in Game 3 of their best-of-five series with the New York Yankees, forcing a bullpen day in Game 4 in which, as expected, they are massive underdogs.
Louis Varland will open the game for Toronto after allowing a critical three-run homer to Aaron Judge in Tuesday’s matchup. Varland will presumably be followed by Eric Lauer.
Cam Schlittler, a 24-year-old rookie, will make his second start of the postseason for the Yankees after a masterful performance in a do-or-die Game 3 versus the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card round, racking up 12 strikeouts and allowing zero earned runs.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s Game 4 matchup between the Blue Jays and Yankees, courtesy of bet365.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 4 ALDS odds
Blue Jays moneyline odds | +155 |
Yankees moneyline odds | -185 |
Runline odds | Blue Jays +1.5 (-135), Yankees -1.5 (+115) |
Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-110), Under 8.5 (-110) |
Date/time | Oct. 8, 7:08 p.m. ET |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
It was expected that the Blue Jays would ultimately end up being heavy underdogs if Game 4 was needed, as a bullpen game versus Schlittler is far from a favourable matchup for Toronto. That was the reason that backing this series to go five at +170 appeared to provide value compared to rolling over bets on the Yankees to win Games 3 and 4, as oddsmakers seemed to be underrating how wide the Game 4 moneyline prices would be.
Pulling an established starter in Shane Bieber after only 54 pitches with a bullpen day looming has put the Jays in a tough spot for this matchup, but the logic was quite sound.
The Yankees were seeing Bieber extremely well last night, and attempting to preserve what was still a significant lead by pulling him early in order to try and end the series made sense.
The Yankees were the best offensive team in baseball this season, and it’s not overly realistic to expect to win games against them while making critical errors in the field. Toronto’s two defensive errors came at horrible times last night, and ultimately forced Varland into a horrible spot in having to pitch to Aaron Judge with two runners on.
Some Statcast on Aaron Judge's HR: It was off a 99.7 mph pitch that was 1.2 feet inside (vs. the center of the zone). It’s the first time in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008), regular season or postseason combined, that a hitter has homered off a 99-plus mph pitch that also was
In throwing 100 mph way inside in an 0-2 count, Varland probably thought he was either recording a strikeout, or moving the count to 1-2. Judge’s home run was a complete outlier in terms of count and location, and the greater concern than Varland’s pitch was Addison Barger’s drop and walking Trent Grisham.
Louis Varland on Aaron Judge: “He made a really good pitch look really bad”
Since September 1st, Varland has pitched to an ERA of 3.86 and holds an xFIP of 3.08. His recent pitch metrics have been excellent (113 Stuff+, 114 Pitching+), but he’s certainly facing a tough situation in needing to flush last night’s blow-up and face the heart of the Yankees order in a second consecutive outing.
Varland will presumably be asked to record six outs or less in this matchup before Eric Lauer enters the game. After an excellent start to the season, Lauer has pitched to an ERA of 5.11 and an xFIP of 4.68 across his last 10 outings. He recorded 10 outs while allowing zero earned runs in an important matchup versus the Red Sox on September 25th and will likely be asked to handle a similar workload Wednesday.
While obviously the Blue Jays did need to tack on to their six-run output in the final six innings of last night’s matchup, you can’t really blame the offence for recording six runs in a playoff game started by a quality arm in Carlos Rodon. The Blue Jays hold a wRC+ of 187 in the series and have struck out just 15% of the time.
Schlittler presents a tough challenge for the Blue Jays lineup, but they have already seen him twice since the All-Star break, which could be beneficial. In those outings Schlittler pitched to an ERA of 8.11 and allowed 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings.
Betting New York Yankees
Hopefully the Blue Jays’ previous results versus Schlittler do prove to be a relevant indicator, as the hard-throwing righty dominated the majority of MLB lineups down the stretch. In his final 10 regular season appearances, Schlittler pitched to an ERA of 2.36 and an xFIP of 3.54. His velocity was up during his lone playoff start, as he routinely touched 100 mph while carving up the Red Sox.
The Yankees did use the majority of their top high-leverage arms in last night’s matchup, but their unit is still in decent shape overall after an off-day Monday. Over the last 30 days, Yankees relievers hold an ERA of 4.88, a mark that is a significant underperformance for a unit featuring several relievers that are thought to be among the best in the game.
Given the Blue Jays’ shaky pitching plan, this is a concerning spot versus one of the toughest lineups in baseball, and Toronto simply can’t afford to make mistakes in the field in this matchup. The Yankees hold a wRC+ of 118 over the last 30 days, and the fourth-highest hard-hit rate in MLB during that span.
Predictions for Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 4
While I’m happy to have recommended backing the series to reach five games as one of yesterday’s best bets at +170, I’m not sure there is any value in adding to that position with the Yankees priced at -185 in this matchup.
The Blue Jays have hit Schlittler well this season and have also fared well versus elite velocity from right-handed pitchers. Schlittler should get a fairly long leash even if things aren’t going overly smoothly, and as a result, I see value in backing him to allow over 1.5 earned runs at -110.
I also see value in backing Guerrero Jr. to record a walk in this matchup at +200, after we cashed on the same wager yesterday at just +140. Schlittler is a considerably worse matchup than Rodon for a walk, but that is well compensated by the longer price, and the fact that after yesterday’s home run, the Yankees may feel even more strongly about pitching him carefully.
Best Bet: Schlittler Over 1.5 Earned Runs -110 (bet365, Play to -120), Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Walks +200 (bet365, Play to +190)
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