Blue Jays vs Astros 05/07/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The Toronto Blue Jays have been averaging close to seven runs per game for more than a week, which seems like a sign their UNDER trend on the road might balance out this weekend. The Blue Jays are +120 road underdogs and the Houston Astros are -140 home favourites with a 9.0-run total on the MLB odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Blue Jays are 9-8 as an underdog this season, and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of their 19 away games at online betting sites. Houston is only 11-12 as a favourite, and the total is split at 7-7 over their 14 home games. The teams did not play in 2020, but the Blue Jays are 3-6 in their last nine visits to MInute Maid Park and have scored 5.0 runs per game there while allowing an average of 7.2 runs.

The Blue Jays are 16-14 so far this season. In spite of outfielder George Springer (quad strain) re-aggravating an injury, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.80 runs per game and rank 13th out of the 30 MLB teams with a .710 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). They have averaged 6.78 runs over their last nine games. The Blue Jays are eighth in earned-run average (3.56), and their relievers are second with a 2.40 ERA.

The Astros, who are 16-15, are scoring 4.87 runs per game and are seventh with a .726 OPS. The Astros are 13th in ERA (3.90), and their relievers rank 20th with a 4.20 ERA.

Righthander Ross Stripling (0-1, 6.39 ERA, 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings) will start in Friday’s matchup opposite righthander José Urquidy (2-2, 3.71 ERA, 7.1 SO/9). Only one of Stripling’s last eight starts has finished with a total of fewer than eight runs. Urquidy will be working with five days’ rest and is coming off a seven-shutout-innings performance on May 1 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Lefthander Steven Matz (4-2, 4.78 ERA, 9.3 SO/9) will start on Saturday opposite righty Cristian Javier (3-0, 1.75 ERA, 10.5 SO/9). Matz has allowed 11 earned runs over 8.2 innings in his last two starts, but should have a reasonable expectation of run support since Toronto has scored at least four runs in five of his six starts in 2021. Five of Javier’s last six starts have had a total of at least eight runs. The young Astros righthander has only worked into the sixth inning once this season.

The Blue Jays have left the Sunday starting slot open for a potential bullpen day. Veteran righthander Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.76 ERA, 6.9 SO/9), who has only faced Toronto once in the last 10 seasons, will start for Houston. Greinke has allowed seven earned runs over eight innings in his last two starts; his last three have had an average total of 10.3.

The Blue Jays conclude their 10-game road swing with three contests against Atlanta, starting on Tuesday.