The Blue Jays will look to bounce back from yet another highly disappointing day in Sunday’s series finale, and garner a series split. Saturday’s game was the 20th time this season Toronto was held to two runs or less, which wasted an excellent outing from Jose Berrios.

The Blue Jays will be favoured once again in Sunday’s matchup, as Yusei Kikuchi (2.64 ERA, 58 IP) is set to face-off against Casey Mize (4.57 ERA, 45 and 1/3 IP). Kikuchi has been particularly dominant in the month of May, with an ERA of 2.22 across 24 and 1/3 innings.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Tigers via bet365:

You can add Reese Olson to the list of starters who had all the answers versus the Jays offense this season. Or perhaps not all the answers, but all of the answers in the biggest at-bats of the game leading to zero earned runs allowed.

For the second straight season Toronto’s complete inability to hit with RISP is ruining an offensive process which looks livable in many others areas. The Blue Jays owned a 20th ranked OPS of .735 last season with RISP, and this season that mark is way down at .652, which ranks 27th in MLB.

It’s becoming harder and harder to make the case that the Jays are due for positive regression in terms of BABIP with men-on. If it doesn’t change soon the team is simply going to have to try to make meaningful changes to the front office, and it feels like desire for change among fans is growing significantly after each loss right now.

The Blue Jays own xwOBA of .316, which ranks 16th in baseball. They have been more effective in splits versus right-handed pitching, as they own a wRC+ 99.

If the Blue Jays can find some reasonable production in this matchup they should have a great chance of claiming the win, as Kikuchi has been consistently excellent this season. Kikuchi has allowed more than three ER only once in his ten starts this season.

Kikuchi owns an xERA of 2.67 and an xFIP of 3.12. His stuff is rating out considerably better year over year, as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 108, with a Location+ rating of 103 in 2024.

Given the way Kikuchi is dominating of late he poses a tough challenge to any side in MLB. The Tigers could be particularly likely to struggle with Kikuchi though, as their wRC+ of 74 versus left-handed pitchers ranks 28th in MLB. Detroit also owns an OPS of just .611 against lefties.

Casey Mize has pitched to an xERA of 4.29, and an xFIP of 3.80. He owns a K/BB ratio of just 2.00, and has generated a whiff rate of just 21.4%. Opponents own a hard-hit rate of 49% versus Mize with two-strikes this season.

Batters have a miss-rate of just 17% against Mize slider and knuckle-curve this season. His fastballs rate out quite well, but he has struggled to work secondary stuff of them effectively.

It’s not an overly fun take to put out there given the vibe around the Blue Jays right now, but they deserve to be a larger favorite to win this game than this game than they are given the disparity in starting pitchers. Kikuchi presents as the significantly better of the two starters, and the Tigers offense holds anemic splits against left-handed pitching this season.

Given that this is a Sunday game and the Jays seventh of the week, it is possible we see some key bats out of the lineup, so keep that in mind prior to betting. Assuming the Jays field close to their “A” lineup, there is value backing them to earn a series split at anything better than -135.