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MLB Betting Preview (May 13): Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
Toronto Blue Jays George Springer
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
May 13, 2024, 12:00 EDTUpdated: May 13, 2024, 12:33 EDT
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After a brief three-game homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays are back on the road Monday for the start of a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.
The Minnesota Twins took two of three games from the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre over the weekend, holding Toronto in the basement of the American League East standings with an 18-22 record.
Baltimore, meanwhile, took the first two contests of its three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks this past weekend before falling 9-2 on Sunday. The Orioles have won seven of their last nine games and hold a half-game lead over the New York Yankees for top stop in the AL East.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Orioles via bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
+140
Orioles Moneyline Odds
-165
Runline Odds
Orioles -1.5 (+130), Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under
Over 8 runs (-105), Under 8 runs (-115)
Time/Date
May 13, 6:35 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Sportsnet 1, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (18-22 SU, 18-22 ATS, 17-23 o/u)

The Blue Jays spoiled a very good outing from right-hander Alek Manoah on Sunday. The struggling right-hander tossed seven frames without allowing an earned run, but Toronto could only produce one run in the 5-1 loss. Still, though, the Jays will be feeling good about Manoah’s solid outing after more than a year of frustrating setbacks. They remain hopeful he can return to being an impactful starter.
Toronto exploded for a season-high 10 runs on Saturday against the Twins, but the team is still averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which ranks 26th in the majors. Davis Schneider responded well to being promoted to the leadoff spot on Saturday with a three-hit performance, but the struggling George Springer was back at the top of the lineup on Sunday and went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Springer is slashing just .200/273/.290 in 37 games, so he could be a candidate to move down in the order until he can turn things around.
Toronto’s bullpen has been horrendous recently, with Erik Swanson coughing up a pair of runs Sunday to raise his ERA to an unbelievable 14.04 across 11 appearances. The Blue Jays have the worst bullpen in the majors with a combined ERA of 5.15 while also getting hammered for 23 home runs. Only the relievers from the Tampa Bay Rays have allowed more homers (25).

Betting Baltimore Orioles (26-13 SU, 21-17 ATS, 20-15-3 o/u)

The Orioles are proving that last year’s breakout season wasn’t a fluke and find themselves in control of the AL East once again. They’re a solid 14-8 at home and a very impressive 14-5 against opponents with greater than .500 records.
Offensively, this team has threats up and down the lineup. The O’s are averaging 5.1 runs per game (2nd in MLB) and they’ve hit the most home runs (60) in baseball. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson leads the team with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs and is one of eight players on the roster to already smash five or more homers.
Pitching has also been a strength for the Orioles, who rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs allowed per game (3.8 – ninth), ERA (3.34 – fifth), WHIP (1.10 – fourth), K/9 (8.85 – seventh) and opponents’ batting average (.218 – third).
If the Orioles do have a weakness, it’s at the back end of the bullpen. Veteran closer Craig Kimbrel has struggled, blowing three of his 11 save opportunities. Yennier Cano is now getting some save chances and could overtake Kimbrel in the role shortly. Felix Bautista was a dominant closer for the Orioles but he’s out for the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Baltimore make a move for a high-leverage arm to bolster the bullpen at some point this season.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (4-3, 2.85 ERA, 7.23 K/9, 1.12 WHIP)
After seven solid starts to begin the season, Berrios was knocked around for eight earned runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies last time out. He went into that start with the league lead in ERA (1.44) amongst qualified starters, but that number ballooned to 2.85 once the Phillies were finished with him. It’ll be interesting to see how Berrios responds against another powerful lineup on Monday.
Baltimore: RHP Corbin Burnes (3-2, 2.83 ERA, 8.87 K/9, 0.97 WHIP)
Burnes has been as good as the Orioles hoped he’d be when they acquired him from the Milwaukee Brewers in February. The right-hander enters this start with the second shortest AL Cy Young Award odds (+350) behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and he’s allowed three earned runs or less in each of his eight starts to this point. However, Burnes has taken back-to-back losses to the Washington Nationals and New York Yankees after the Orioles failed to provide him with even a single run of support in either of those outings.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 23 C under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be blowing out to left field at 12 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The Orioles have won 19 of the 31 games they’ve played as favourites this season (61.3%).
  • The Blue Jays have won just four of the 16 games they’ve been listed as underdogs in this season (25%).
  • The Blue Jays have hit the first five innings team total under in 18 of their last 26 games (69% hit rate).

MLB player prop trends

  • Burnes has amassed exactly six strikeouts in each of his last three starts. He’s -155 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
  • Berrios has walked two or more batters in four of his last five starts, averaging two per game during that span. He’s -140 to record over 1.5 walks against a dangerous Orioles lineup.
  • Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 games. He’s a steep -240 to get a hit but this category could be a useful leg of parlay.
  • Springer is struggling, recording under 1.5 total bases in 11 straight games. He’s -250 to fall short of this line again.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions

  • Adley Rutschman and James McCann have monster career numbers against Berrios. Rutschman is 10-for-16 (.625) with a home run and McCann is 8-for-24 (.333) with four homers and 10 RBIs. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde will likely find a way to get both of these catchers in the lineup by placing one of them at designated hitter with these favourable career splits. Rutschman is -250 to get a hit, +120 to record over 1.5 total bases, and +600 to homer. Betting lines aren’t yet posted for McCann, but if he’s in the starting lineup, check back for some likely good value in the same categories.
  • Orioles most hits: -115. The Orioles average 8.5 hits per game while the Jays average 7.5. Additionally, the Jays cough up an average of 8.5 hits per game compared to Baltimore’s 7.4. You have to give Burnes the slight advantage in the starting pitching matchup given Berrios’ implosion last time out and Toronto’s bullpen is incredibly shaky right now. Take the Orioles to record more hits with confidence.

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