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MLB Betting Preview (April 30): Royals vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto
Photo credit:Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
1 month ago
The Toronto Blue Jays will play the second contest of their three-game series against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre after powering their way to a 6-5 victory in the series opener on Monday.
Justin Turner hit two home runs and three other Blue Jays – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Davis Schneider, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa – enjoyed multi-hit performances to help Toronto snap a three-game losing streak against the Royals. Toronto is back to the .500 mark on the season and has now posted back-to-back wins after claiming a 3-1 victory Sunday over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
 

 
 
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s matchup between the Royals and Blue Jays via bet365:

Royals vs. Blue Jays odds

Royals Moneyline Odds+115
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds-135
Runline OddsBlue Jays -1.5 (+160), Royals +1.5 (-190)
Over/UnderOver 7.5 runs (-120), Under 7.5 runs (+100)
Time/DateApril 30, 7:07 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: Sportsnet 1, Sportsnet+

Betting Kansas City Royals (17-13 SU, 18-12 ATS, 10-18-2 o/u)

The Royals have dropped three straight games to match their longest losing streak of the season, but a pair of those defeats were one-run losses, including Monday’s series opener with the Jays. Kansas City showed some fight by clawing its way back into the game with a pair of home runs, and it didn’t get a good start from right-hander Jonathan Bowlan, who was called up from the minors due to an injury to Alec Marsh. Bowlan coughed up three home runs and walked three batters over just 2 2/3 innings of work, forcing the Royals to call on their bullpen early. Tyler Duffey and Matt Sauer both threw over 30 pitches, so they’ll likely be unavailable out of the bullpen on Tuesday.
 

 
 
Catcher Salvador Perez, who is off to a blazing start with seven homers and 26 RBIs, was a late scratch Monday due to a stiff back. Bettors will want to monitor his status for Tuesday’s game as the veteran is a key cog in the batting order.
Despite surrendering six runs to the Blue Jays on Monday, the Royals are allowing an average of 3.2 runs per game, the best mark in the majors.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (15-15 SU, 15-15 ATS, 12-18 o/u)

Hey! The Blue Jays finally put some runs on the board Monday, although they did most of their damage against a Triple-A pitcher. Regardless, it was the first time Toronto had scored more than five runs in a game since April 6 vs. the Yankees, when they hung eight runs on the board in a losing cause.
With two hits on Monday, Turner is now slashing .311/.390/.533 with four homers and 15 RBIs. His numbers are even better against Kansas City this year, posting a .429/.500/.929 slash line in 14 at-bats.
The Jays will also be feeling good about Guerrero, Jr. snapping out of his funk after his second straight multi-hit performance. Vladdy now has hits in three straight games but he hasn’t homered since April 10 vs. the Seattle Mariners. He’s clearly timing the ball well right now and could continue that momentum into Tuesday.
Toronto is averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is tied for 26th in the majors.

Probable starting pitchers

Kansas City: LHP Cole Ragans (1-2, 3.90 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 1.43 WHIP)
Ragans picked up his first win of the year in last Thursday’s rain-shortened game against the Blue Jays, tossing five innings of one-run ball while striking out four. He struggled with his command a bit, issuing three walks, but that’s understandable given the slippery conditions both teams were asked to play in. Ragans has been very good early this season for the Royals, allowing three earned runs or less in five of his six outings. He had one disastrous outing against the Baltimore Orioles on April 20, surrendering seven earned runs on nine hits in 1 2/3 innings of work. The lefty boasts one of the most electric fastballs in the majors, averaging 96.1 mph while ranking in the 96th percentile in fastball run value according to Baseball Savant. Opposing batters are hitting just .191 against his heater and he’s amassed 16 of his 37 strikeouts with the pitch, which he balances with his changeup.
Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (4-1, 1.23 ERA, 6.87 K/9, 1.04 WHIP)
Berrios has pitched like a man possessed since getting the early hook in last year’s playoff series with the Minnesota Twins. The right-hander has improved his American League Cy Young Award odds to +2000 behind only six other pitchers with his red-hot start and he should be fresh after throwing just 67 pitches last Thursday against the Royals. Berrios was tabbed with two earned runs on three hits in that shortened start and he issued three walks. But, again, the conditions were less than ideal in that outing so take it with a grain of salt. Berrios has found early success with two of his off-speed pitches, with opponents hitting just .136 off his slurve and .125 against his changeup.

Weather

Rain is expected to clear by Tuesday evening in Toronto but cool temperatures around 12 C will likely keep the retractable dome at Rogers Centre closed.

MLB betting trends

  • The Blue Jays have been favoured in 18 games this season and have won 12 of those contests (66.7% moneyline hit rate).
  • The under is 6-2 in Toronto’s last eight games.
  • The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the teams.
  • Toronto has hit the team total under in 40 of its past 66 home games (60.6% hit rate).

MLB player prop trends

  • Berrios has walked two or more batters in three straight starts and four of his last five. He’s +110 to walk over 1.5 batters.
  • Berrios has surrendered two earned runs or less in all six of his starts this season. He’s -115 to record under 2.5 earned runs.
  • Royals infielder Maikel Garcia has recorded two or more total bases in four straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s +110 to record over 1.5 total bases.

Royals vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • Bobby Witt Jr. has stolen four bases in five games against the Blue Jays this year and is +210 to swipe a bag Tuesday. Runs could be hard to come by in this one with two solid starting pitchers on the mound, so don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. tries to get into scoring position if he reaches base, which he’s done in 12 of his last 13 games. Pay attention to who’s behind the plate for the Jays once lineups are announced before you potentially place this wager. Alejandro Kirk has thrown out a very respectable 33% of prospective base-stealers at second base this season while Danny Jansen has nailed just 13% of the runners that have taken off for second base against him.
  • Under 7.5 runs: +100. Yes, the teams combined to soar over the total Monday night, but it was the first time they’ve done so in five games against each other this season. Toronto’s projected starting lineup is just 4-for-32 all time against Ragans (.125 average), while the Royals’ projected starters are 27-for-115 (.235 average) against Berrios. At even money, and both teams strongly trending towards the under overall early this season, bet on a return to a low-scoring affair on Tuesday.
  • If you like Turner to stay hot, he’s -210 to get a hit, +155 to drive in a run, and +475 to homer. He’s 1-for-5 in his career vs. Ragans.

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